A modelling study suggests that distributing pandemic vaccines more evenly between countries could reduce deaths overall, The Guardian reports. Researchers examined a hypothetical influenza outbreak and different vaccine strategies.
The results are scenarios based on assumptions, not a prediction of the next pandemic. The report also discusses trade-offs between outcomes in richer and poorer countries.
A model of a different distribution
The study compares vaccine-allocation scenarios for a future pandemic. Its estimated benefits depend on assumptions about delivery, risk and uptake. A model can help identify the consequences of policy choices, but its output should not be presented as an observed death toll or a guarantee about the next outbreak.
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